On the website of the British financial newspaper Financial Times a survey of foreign banks with exposure to Irish debt shows that Belgian banks run a considerable risk in case of a default of payment by Ireland. European finance ministers’ inability to come up with a solution on Sunday to appease markets caused investors to dump their investments in government bonds. As from 2013, bonds stand to lose some of their safe status in view of the vague bailout plan drafted by European leaders, with bond holders being jointly responsible for the costs of a bailout in some cases. It’s significant to note yesterday that the increase in decennial interest was not the highest in countries like Ireland, Portugal or Greece as would be expected, but in Spain and in two other countries with high public debt which until now have managed to remain scot-free: Italy and Belgium. It seems as if the bond markets focus on countries with large public debt, even if the new regulations do not apply to current sovereign debt holders. In the Wetstraat, the Belgian political centre, there is unease over the interest which increased by 20 basis points to 3.86% yesterday, increasing the spread with German Bunds to more than 1%. The fact that no new government has been formed after 160 days is not conducive to general confidence. However, this does not imply that Belgium should rush into an emergency government, maintains Bart Haeck in his commentary in the newspaper De Tijd. On the contrary.
Bart Haeck is political and economic editor for the newspaper De Tijd.
Greece has been given a lifeline. Ireland has been saved. Who’s next? Portugal? Spain? Italy? Or Belgium, perhaps? The sense of unease that held sway on financial markets yesterday indicates that this country is not in a position to remain under the radar forever, with interest on Belgian government bonds increasing to one full per cent higher than in Germany. Nothing dramatic, really, but this level was last reached just before the previous elections, and at the time N-VA party chairman Bart De Wever had to organize a press conference for the international press to pacify the markets.
Could this be imminent justice that financial markets aim at Belgian government bonds, or is it simply a matter of vicious speculation? Whatever the case may be, there is only way of easing investors and convincing them that nothing’s up. The fact is the investors should be convinced that the Belgian government will dispose of sufficient funds in ten years’ time to settle the debt it is incurring at present. The answer to the question will primarily determine the interest rate of the sovereign debt.
The crisis suffered in the Eurozone is not a liquidity crisis, but rather a solvency crisis. This basically means that it’s not so much Ireland’s lack of money to pay tomorrow's bills that’s unsettling, but rather about investors doubting the fact that the country may not be able to settle its debts in five or ten years’ time. And that’s a crucial difference. You do not solve the crisis with a bailout, but with structural reform instead.
For this reason it’s perturbing to note that Italy followed suit yesterday with an increase in interest on its government bonds. And the problems in Italy resemble amazingly well those in Belgium. Government debt is high, inadequate measures have been made to cope with an ageing population and too few people are employed. The structural problems are the same.
The Wetstraat therefore will have to consider the increasing interest as a test. Investors are testing to see if the Belgium’s political environment is capable of directing the way forward for the country. We could pass the test. Belgian families are rich and, compared to the rest of Europe, economic growth is healthy and the budget deficit not alarmingly high. However, the costs of an ageing population and government debt remain problems that need to be addressed. The best option would be to reduce unemployment.
These factors all point to the fact that it would be unwise to form an emergency government; a notion that started to circulate through government offices yesterday. After all, the market is not testing if Belgium is in a position to form a government, but rather if one can look forward to a new government taking firm decisions and capable of successfully addressing structural problems. We have known since 2007 that an emergency government cannot achieve this objective.
Only one solution remains and unfortunately it's not an easy one. There is a need for state reform that would make Belgium more efficient and savings as painless as possible. Let’s hope there's indeed some merit to the pressure by financial markets and that it may push the government in the right direction.
A l'initiative du ministre flamand Geert Bourgeois (N-VA), les premiers Etats Généraux de "Citoyennisation" et de l'Intégration débuteront aujourd'hui à Leuven. Bourgeois veut concrétiser son idée de "coaches" ou de "camarades" d'intégration par référence aux "camarades linguistiques" ("taalmaatjes") qui existent déjà aux Pays-Bas. Les participants à ces Etats Généraux sont issus des nombreux projets en vigueur pour stimuler l'intégration, des syndicats, du patronat, des associations et de l'enseignement.
"La politique d'intégration fait débat dans tous les pays. Chez nous, la pression vient surtout d'une politique d'immigration défaillante, qui est une matière fédérale. Mais elle ne peut être un alibi pour que la Flandre ne continue pas à tenter d'améliorer sa politique en la matière", explique Geert Bourgeois, qui a récemment constaté à Barcelone que plusieurs de ses collègues catalans, tout comme de nombreux citoyens, passent une heure par semaine pour aider un nouveau venu à s'y retrouver dans la communauté catalane. "Aux Pays-Bas, cela s'appelle "camarades linguistiques", même s'ils font plus qu'inculquer la langue, ce qui est déjà extrêmement important en soi".
Pour Bourgeois, l'intégration civile est le bon choix. Il signale que même la Vice-première ministre Joëlle Milquet plaide pour une "citoyennisation à la flamande". Mais le processus peut être rendu plus efficace : "Depuis 2006, 65.000 nouveaux venus se sont manifestés pour un cours d'intégration. Chaque année, 60.000 personnes suivent un cours de néerlandais. Quantité de nouveaux venus saisissent ces chances, mais il y a aussi beaucoup d'échecs". Pour le ministre, les candidats à l'intégration ne doivent pas renier leur passé, mais il leur faut toutefois construire un avenir commun avec ceux qui habitent déjà en Belgique, et il rappelle que cela passe par les valeurs de base qui ont cours dans notre pays. Bourgeois estime aussi que la gestion de l'intégration doit se faire au niveau local.
The first interministerial conference for civic integration, an initiative of Flemish minister Geert Bourgeois (N-VA), is set to start today in Leuven. Bourgeois wants to turn his idea of ‘integration coaches’ or ‘integration buddies’ into concrete actions. This is a variation on the ‘language buddies’ that already exist in the Netherlands. Attendants at the interministerial conference are from the many projects devoted to integration, from trade unions, employers, associations and education bodies. “Integration policy is up for debate in all countries,” Bourgeois said. “Here the pressure is primarily due to the failing immigration policy. That is a federal matter, but that cannot be an excuse for not looking for improvements to our own citizenship and integration policy in Flanders.” Bourgeois said that he recently saw in Barcelona that numerous of his Catalan counterparts, as well as ordinary citizens, spent one hour a week familiarising newcomers with Catalan society. “In the Netherlands they call them language buddies, although they do more than introducing the language alone, which in itself is already extremely important.”
Integration is a good option, the minister believes, pointing out that even the federal deputy prime minister, Joëlle Milquet (CDH), has argued for an integration à la flamande. But he feels it could be more effective. “Since 2006 65,000 newcomers have registered for integration, and 54,000 have received the integration certificate. Every year there are 60,000 people taking a Dutch language course. Many newcomers grab the opportunity, but there are also many failures.” Newcomers making efforts to integrate must not renounce their past, he said, but must rather construct a collective future with those people already in Belgium, a task that starts from the basic values that already exist here. Bourgeois also called to organize integration policy at a local level.