And the winner is...

With nearly 23% of the votes, the Christian Democrat CD&V achieved its goal of becoming the largest party in Flanders. This means that it gets to take the initiative in forming the next regional government, with another term for Kris Peeters as minister-president. Peeters himself seems to have been a major asset for CD&V, as he has become a favourite with the voters. Observers describe this victory as a typical case of a leader swallowing its coalition partners - in this case Open VLD and SP.A.

Back in about 2000, some observers predicted that the traditional CD&V would melt away "like ice". This has not happened. In fact, this is the fourth victory in a row for CD&V, following the regional elections of 2004, the communal of 2006 and the federal elections of 2007. In addition, this was the first time since 2003 that CD&V presented itself at the ballot box without forming a cartel with N-VA. Remarkably, the combined results of the two former partners last Sunday was higher than ever.

The nationalist N-VA is the biggest winner of this election. Just a few years ago, there were doubts about whether it could even survive on its own, but it has now grown into a medium- sized party, with no less than 13% of the votes. Party president Bart De Wever, who the public got to know as a dry cynic, a sharp wit and a clever debater, played a large part in this victory. The electorate obviously appreciated his uncompromising attitude on Flemish demands for greater autonomy.

As the big winner, N-VA is expected to enter the Flemish government. It will be interesting to see how it will go about reaching its goal of more Flemish autonomy, as it has to depend on the federal level and the goodwill of the French-speakers to achieve this.

Another winner is Lijst Dedecker, although LDD suffers from what has become known as "defeat in victory": a result of 7% is actually quite good for a newcomer, but so much more was expected of LDD, which dominated a large part of the campaign. Founder Jean-Marie Dedecker, a former Olympic judo coach, had hoped for 10%. In his own words, he got "only a bronze medal" and his LDD is destined to become an opposition party.

Those who lose

With a loss of no less than 9%, the far right Vlaams Belang is the biggest loser. With 15% of votes, it is still the second-largest party in Flanders, but it is no longer that formidable bloc it was four years ago. With this defeat, one of Bart De Wever's dearest wishes - "regaining the nationalist aspect from the extremists" - comes true. It might also lift some of the extreme- right odium from the image Flanders sometimes projects abroad.

The reason for Vlaams Belang's beating? With N-VA and LDD both doing well, the competition was simply too strong. N-VA is just as nationalist as Vlaams Belang, but more respectable, while LDD appeals to anti-establishment voters in much the same way, but without the racist undertones. With this blow, the party of Filip Dewinter will remain in opposition, where it has spent all of its life.

Open VLD had expected some losses, but not on this scale. With slightly less than 15% of the vote, it is now only the fourth party in Flanders (although that gives them the second-highest number of seats in parliament). Though hyperactive during the campaign, the liberals were at a loss when CD&V asked them to name their candidate as minister president. In the end, they decided on deputy-minister president Dirk Van Mechelen, after party president Bart Somers was weakened by having made outrageous promises to an LDD defector. Bart Somers pays the price for this defeat and has resigned as party president, leaving its natural leader, former prime minister Guy Verhofstadt, in charge.

It was Guy Verhofstadt who pulled off the biggest stunt in these elections. With more than half a million votes in the European elections, he is still Flanders' most popular politician. This lifts Open VLD's result for the European Parliament up by 5%, to 20%. This difference, created by voters switching their votes from the Flemish to the European Parliament, is unprecedented. Before the election, the former prime minister stated he was "ready to help where needed". It looks like his own party needs him the most.

Although it got quite a blow, the socialist SP.A seemed rather relieved to get 15%, which was not as bad as they had feared. Over the last few elections, SP.A has become mostly the party of city residents, as it has been virtually wiped out in the countryside. The beleaguered party president Caroline Gennez now hopes to rebuild her party to its former strength. She can count on the help of Steve Stevaert, its popular former leader, who announced on election day that he is quitting as governor of the province of Limburg. He will not re-enter political life, he has said, but by leaving this largely ceremonial function (which requires strict neutrality), he can at least speak out freely.

The ecological Groen! got a disappointing 6%. This is about the weight of its traditional electorate, but the greens had expected a much better result, especially since its French-speaking counterpart Ecolo scores around 20%.

And what now?

Minister-president Kris Peeters (CD&V) now has to form a new government. This is a daunting puzzle, with a plethora of medium-sized parties, winners and losers alike. He could continue with the current coalition, working with Open VLD en SP.A, but that would be seen as going against the voters' will. More likely he will try to include the winning N-VA. In that case, he will also need either SP.A or Open VLD, both of whom are licking their wounds at this moment.

Meanwhile, life has not become any easier for federal prime minister Herman Van Rompuy (CD&V), who heads a government of Christian democrats and liberals, along with French-speaking socialists. As the Walloon and Brussels regional governments will probably leave out liberals and include greens, there will no symmetry at all between the federal and regional level, on both sides of the language border. To make matters even more complicated, the victory of CD&V and N-VA has rekindled the Flemish demands for state reform, which will no doubt result in more arm wrestling between the language groups of this country.

2009 vs. 2007

CD&V 22.86 / 26.09 (CD&V/N-VA)
Vlaams Belang 15.28 / 24.15
SP.A 15.27 / 19.66 (SP.A/Spirit)
Open VLD 14.99 / 19.79
N-VA 13.06
LDD 7.62
SLP 1.1

Most popular candidates - Flemish parliament

1 PEETERS Kris CD&V 127,608 Kieskring Antwerpen
2 DE WEVER Bart N-VA 123,155 Kieskring Antwerpen
3 CREVITS Hilde CD&V 101,230 Kieskring West-Vlaanderen
4 DEWINTER Filip VB 95,409 Kieskring Antwerpen
5 LETERME Yves CD&V 93,633 Kieskring West-Vlaanderen
6 VANDEURZEN Jo CD&V 69,223 Kieskring Limburg
7 DEDECKER J-M LDD 54,921 Kieskring West-Vlaanderen
8 VANDENBROUCKE Frank sp.a 46,490 Kieskring Vlaams-Brabant
9 VAN MECHELEN Dirk Open Vld 46,057 Kieskring Antwerpen
10 SCHAUVLIEGE Joke CD&V 44,685 Kieskring Oost-Vlaanderen

Most popular candidates - European Parliament

1 VERHOFSTADT Guy Open Vld 534,059
2 DEHAENE Jean-Luc CD&V 440,360
3 MICHEL Louis (FR) MR 291,749
4 LETERME Yves CD&V 260,846
5 DE WEVER Bart N-VA 213,911
6 THYSSEN Marianne CD&V 183,355
7 VANHECKE Frank Vlaams Belang 156,658
8 BELET Ivo CD&V 154,900
9 MARCOURT Jean-Claude (FR)PS 150,570
10 DEWINTER Filip Vlaams Belang 147,387