
Last week Flemish socialist Johan Vande Lanotte, the latest in a long line of negotiators appointed by the king to bring the parties together, handed in his resignation. This followed the rejection of his document establishing a basis for further talks by CD&V under newly elected president Wouter Beke and by the nationalist N-VA. Other parties, notably on the French-speaking side, expressed a desire to carry on talking, although their reactions to Vande Lanotte's document were almost as negative as the two Flemish parties.
As the document was presented, De Wever was appearing on Flemish TV as a participant in the quiz show De allerslimste mens ter wereld (The Very Smartest Person in the World). That story was picked up by the Associated Press and carried by international newspapers such as The Washington Post. De Wever, in what he described as a "blow below the belt", was likened to Nero.
Vande Lanotte's reaction, meanwhile, was to prepare his resignation letter and get ready to bring it to the king, together with his evaluation of matters as they currently stand among the seven parties. That should have taken place on Monday, but instead the meeting was postponed until Tuesday, after Flanders Today had gone to press, because of the ill health of Vande Lanotte's mother.
Economists have warned that the continued political stalemate could increase the danger of speculators, launching the sort of attack on the Belgian economy that was seen in the cases of Greece and Ireland. But Axel Miller, chairman of investment bankers Petercam, said the situation is not similar as most Belgian debt is held by Belgian investors.
Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs, in a report on the economies of Europe, said Belgium's strong financial structures would help keep interest rates down. To the question, "Will Belgium split up?" the report answers, "Probably not."
The king now has several options, according to experts.
Put Vande Lanotte back to work. The socialist has already made it clear he's gone as far as he can go, so it's unlikely he would agree. Apart from anything else, his mother's condition is not improving, so he would probably rather be available to provide family support than deal with a stubborn group of negotiators.
Put Vande Lanotte in a room with French-speaking socialist Elio Di Rupo and De Wever to hammer out a solution. De Wever has expressed a willingness to talk alone with Di Rupo, who in turn prefers the option of wider talks.
Call on De Wever to come up with a solution, as he has hinted he might like to do. The plan also has the support of the French-speaking parties, who see the advantage of putting De Wever on the spot. But De Wever is not keen to walk into a trap, and he already had a turn as negotiator shortly after the elections.
Ask CD&V and N-VA to take over the search for a solution, since they were the two parties who rejected Vande Lanotte's document.
Call new elections. The political parties could halt the whole process and prepare for new elections. After more than 210 days of stalemate, the country is the object of international scorn at its inability to form a government.
It's anyone's guess how the electorate would react to being asked to vote again after doing so just last June, while there has been no shadow of a government in the meantime. N-VA might pick up votes to give it a stronger position; it might just as easily lose votes if De Wever is blamed for intransigence. The PS of Elio Di Rupo might hang onto its votes or gain a few. None of the other parties is likely to relish the prospect of new elections. And, with likely the same faces around the table, new elections do not guarantee better success.
In the longer term, with the talks seemingly stalled for good, there are few options left:
Institute an emergency government that would have larger powers than the current caretaker government to allow it to carry out certain functions that have been suspended, mainly on matters of budget.
Continue to seek a government by involving other parties. Essentially, that means the French-speaking liberals MR and Flanders' Open VLD. The trouble is that Open VLD torpedoed the last Leterme government, and both liberal parties took a beating in the elections that followed. It would be hard for the other parties to put them up as a way out of the impasse.