N-VA has only been around since the beginning of this century. In the 2003 election, it earned just one seat. Seven years on, no less than 27 representatives will take up seats in the newly elected Chamber of Representatives. Except for the greens, the results of all the other parties dropped to historic lows.

What caused this tsunami vote?

The events of the past three years have radicalised the Flemish electorate. In 2007, N-VA formed a partnership with the Christian Democrats (CD&V), resulting in electoral victory. Yves Leterme of the CD&V was the Flemish voters’ champion then. But he never managed to deliver on his electoral promises, leading to a split in the cartel.

Many voters blamed the French-speaking minority for blocking any kind of state reform, which was what all Flemish parties wanted. In the words of De Wever, this country consists of “two democracies”. He proposes to let both of them follow their own courses – which seems to have struck the right chord with voters.

N-VA also stands for a new type of politics, less messy than the traditional compromises that have kept Belgium together in spite of all its differences. It remains to be seen how N-VA will behave with real power in its hands, but the voters have obviously judged it worth a chance.

Then there is De Wever himself. The man is larger than life. He is a self-declared conservative (a rarity in Belgian politics), fond of Latin quotes. As a family man, he prefers to take his holidays in Germany. He is overweight and rarely smiles, yet the young viewers of MTV find him “the coolest politician” in Flanders.

His frank way of speaking, heavily laden with sarcasm, has caught on. De Wever also became a media favourite after appearing on the celebrity quiz show De slimste mens ter wereld, as well as an obsession of his political opponents. All of this resulted in a personal vote of more than 760,000, almost equalling that of Leterme in 2007.

So who lost?

Everyone did, apart from the greens, who gain one seat. One of the biggest losers was CD&V, which, for the first time in history, dropped below 20%. The reasons are roughly the same as those that explain N-VA’s success. In the campaign, prime minister Leterme stood aside to make way for Marianne Thyssen. The new party president did what she could, but failed where no-one else could have succeeded either. The final result of 17% is ruthless, leaving political heavyweights such as secretary of state Etienne Schouppe and Hugo Vandenberghe (voted “best senator” by the press) without seats.

The liberal party Open VLD, too, faces a major defeat. Up until three years ago, this country had a liberal prime minister, but Open VLD now drops to a paltry 13%, which makes it the fourth party. The new generation, headed by party president Alexander De Croo (who took control just six months ago), says it cannot put right what has gone wrong before in such a short period. Still, it looks like De Croo has fallen victim to a major rule in Belgian politics: he who causes the federal government to fall, pays the price at the ballot box.

The extreme right party Vlaams Belang is also licking its wounds. The party that once dominated the political debate (without ever gaining any real power), has lost no less than 6.3% to N-VA, reducing it to the fifth political force in Flanders. N-VA reaps what we have sown, lamented VB party leader Filip Dewinter. The N-VA has played on Vlaams Belang’s traditional themes of nationalism and discontent, of course, but without its xenophobia. The Lijst Dedecker party, meanwhile, is left with only one seat.

Amidst this electoral carnage, the socialist party SP.A looks almost like a winner – losing only one percent and coming in third. Still, this is still a historic low for the socialists. Moreover, Frank Vandenbroucke, who fell out of grace with the party establishment, has proved that he is still very popular, which may lead to further internal instability.

So what’s next?

Everyone is looking to Bart De Wever to form a government. With a result that is this clear, the process may be easier than it was in the past. However, De Wever has to find partners across the language border. And there, the results are very clear, too. Very different from the Flemish outcome, the socialist PS is the big winner in Wallonia.

This makes for quite a paradox. While the Flemish nationalists have never scored better, the future prime minister may well be a French speaker – the first one in over 35 years. On election day, French-speaking socialist party (PS) president Elio Di Rupo had already implicitly claimed this post by stressing that “the socialist family is the biggest in the country”.

De Wever has no ambition to move into Wetstraat 16 (the Belgian prime minister’s residence), knowing that this could only serve to reduce his iconic status. Moreover, he hopes that the PS will be more ready to compromise with their man in the driving seat.

So will Belgium fall apart?

Not in the next couple of years, no. The Flemish nationalists – N-VA and Vlaams Belang combined – have a majority, but De Wever is not interested in joining forces with Vlaams Belang. Flemish independence may be the final objective of his N-VA, but he has repeated time and time again that he seeks evolution, not revolution.

The election result will leave some French speakers shell-shocked for a while, but it has the advantage of clarity – state reform is what the Flemish want, now more than ever. This may make for some difficult talks, including compromises on the part of N-VA, as well, which is not something that this party has been known for.

The most likely outcome is a federal government of N-VA, CD&V and SP.A on the Flemish side and PS, CDH (Christian Democrats) and Ecolo (Greens) on the French-speaking side. This reflects the majorities in the regional governments. Bart De Wever personally will probably remain outside government, opting to act as its “mother-in-law” from the side.