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The sorcerer’s apprentice

Images of this impromptu singsong were broadcast around the globe, leaving out essential information, such as the loathing of many people – both Flemish and French-speaking – for the views of the Vlaams Belang. From the images, one might also come to believe that far-right party played some role in the events of the past week. But it did not – as it hardly ever does.

So who caused this crisis? Most people point at Open VLD, the coalition party that withdrew its confidence in the federal government after it once again failed to meet its deadline for resolving institutional talks about the Brussels-Halle- Vilvoorde (BHV) constituency.

The deadline passed several weeks ago, but still when the 34-year-old Open VLD party president Alexander De Croo decided to act upon it, jaws dropped. Somehow, no-one had taken his ultimatum seriously, maybe because they did not take the inexperienced party president all that seriously either.

So all eyes are now on the young De Croo. He has been called irresponsible, a leerling-tovenaar, or sorcerer’s apprentice, someone who experiments with powers he has not mastered. Playing with matches next to a powder keg is another metaphor. What prompted De Croo to make this unexpected move? It was certainly not Flemish militancy, which his party Open VLD does not espouse. (In fact, De Croo is the son of former minister Herman De Croo, a staunch supporter of the Belgian state.)

During his campaign for the party presidency, De Croo junior made a point of consistency, as he believed that Open VLD had compromised too much on its principles by taking part in coalition governments. BHV was a first test for Open VLD’s newly found consistency.

Moreover, Open VLD has never been too happy in the current federal government, Leterme II. Rather than letting this drag on for another year, it has opted for new elections. The timing seems right. The years of internal disagreement are over, the dissenting party Lijst Dedecker is not living up to expectations, the opinion polls are positive, and De Croo obviously hopes to create some kind of momentum. Still, he is taking a big risk, not just for his party’s future, but also for this country’s. We’ll know soon what the sorcerer’s apprentice has conjured up.

Fall-out for Flemish government?
Elections are one way out of this crisis (although they would not solve the matter of BHV and, worse still, they would be unconstitutional because of it). Another option is that the talks are resumed and reach a conclusion. In that case, the bilingual constituency BHV would finally be split, something the Flemish have been after for decades, while the French-speaking parties would receive some compensation. What shape this compensation would take is still part of the negotiations.

If an agreement is found, the crisis will not be over yet, as it inevitably will have an impact on the Flemish government. There is talk of Flanders having to give up its authority over six Flemish municipalities in the Brussels periphery and the introduction of a right to registration whereby French speakers from all over Flemish Brabant could cast their votes in Brussels, rather than in the area where they live.

All of this infuriates the other nationalist party, N-VA, which forms part of the Flemish coalition government and cannot believe that its former partner CD&V might give in on this. “We will not follow them through the valley of shame,” N-VA president Bart De Wever warns. If Flemish authority and the right to voter registration were sacrificed, N-VA would probably leave the Flemish government.

(April 28, 2010)