Corona: If no lockdown, then what? asks leading virologist
The increase in coronavirus infections and hospitalisations is alarming, and virologists are both begging people to adhere to current measures as well as discussing what the next step should be
‘There is no time to lose’
As of today, there are more than 162,250 confirmed infections, with more than 4,150 a day testing positive over the last seven days. That’s an 89% increase on the previous seven-day period.
“The virus is gaining ground in every province and among all age groups,” said virologist Steven Van Gucht of Sciensano at this morning’s press conference. “Just as in the previous days, all indicators point to a very concerning increase in infections. Last Wednesday, we saw 6,505 positive tests, the largest number we have measured since the crisis began.”
The most crucial measure is to limit our close contacts. Models show that this has the greatest impact on the curve
According to Van Gucht, young people are still the group with the highest rate of infections. This is a change from last spring, as now older people are much more likely to follow the six golden rules (hand hygiene, activities outdoors as much as possible, extra precautions with risk groups, social distancing, limit close social contacts, limit group gatherings).
The trend is creeping up the age scale, however, which is unavoidable once the number of infections per 100,000 reaches a certain level. The highest number of infections continues to be Brussels, with an average 817 infections a day over the last seven days. De Gucht also singled out Antwerp and the Limburg province as have dangerous rates of infections.
“Average hospitalisations nationwide are 126 per day, an increase of 62% on the previous seven-day period,” said De Gucht. “There are 1,329 in hospital with the virus, with 243 of them in intensive care.”
In some hospitals in Brussels, Antwerp and Liège, the capacity in intensive care is at 50% of maximum, he confirmed. “If this trend continues, we will see 500 patients in intensive care by the end of the month.”
That is the maximum capacity of beds that are kept free for Covid-19 patients. Once that is passed, more beds in intensive care are reserved for Covid patients, but that means they cannot be used for patients who need intensive care for other reasons. The absolute maximum of beds that can be used for patients with complications due to the coronavirus is 2,000.
He went on to point out that an average 16 people per day are dying from complications of the virus, an increase of 71% of the previous seven day period.
‘Collective responsibility’
“It is our collective responsibility to keep the virus from spreading,” said De Gucht. “It is possible, we have the power to do that. The government has measures in place and can take more measures if they think that’s necessary. The most crucial measure is to limit our close contacts. Models show that this has the greatest impact on the curve. We can flatten the curve quickly by limiting these contacts.”
Close contacts refer to people outside of our own household who we do not practice social distancing with and in whose company we do not wear a facemask. Government measures put this at maximum three per month per person.
“We have no time to lose,” said Yves Stevens of the National Crisis Centre, also at the press conference. “Health-care workers are already under pressure, and if we want to avoid a dramatic situation, we need to react now. Everyone – regardless of age or where they live – must take responsibility for their actions now.”
Stevens referred to secret parties that made the headlines this weekend. “Let’s be clear about this: Irresponsible behaviour rolls out the red carpet to this virus. Such behaviour isn’t cool – it’s just dumb.”
We are headed to the same place, and we have to dare to consider emergency measures
Virologist Erika Vlieghe of Celeval, the expert committee advising the federal government, said on the news panel programme De Zevende Dag at the weekend that no measure, however unpopular, should be considered taboo. “In March and April, we were in lockdown, and everyone said, ‘ok, we save lives, but we’re not going to do that again’. And we’re sitting with that taboo again – lockdown never again! But if not that, then what? Because we are headed to the same place, and you have to dare to consider emergency measures.”
Currently, bars in Brussels are closed until at least the end of the month, and bars in the other regions must shut at 23.00. Close contacts must be limited to three people per month, and groups of people in public must be limited to four. All of the current coronavirus measures are detailed here. The government’s coronavirus website, meanwhile, is updated daily.
Photos, from top: ©Kristof Van Accom/BELGA; ©Jonas Roosens/BELGA
